Bitcoin’s New Era: Macro Forces Reshape the Crypto Landscape

The traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle, long anchored by the predictable rhythm of halving events, is undergoing a fundamental transformation. As we approach 2025, the narrative is shifting from Bitcoin's internal supply mechanics to the powerful influence of external macroeconomic forces. The market's trajectory for 2024-2025 is increasingly dictated by Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions and the political uncertainty surrounding the US election cycle, rather than the programmed scarcity introduced by the halving. This represents a significant maturation of the asset class, as it becomes more integrated with and reactive to traditional financial systems and global geopolitical events. Recent momentum, heavily fueled by the historic inflows into Spot Bitcoin ETFs, is showing preliminary signs of deceleration, prompting analysts to watch for a potential shift in market dynamics. This institutional gateway, while a monumental success, introduces a new layer of sensitivity to traditional market sentiment and regulatory developments. Concurrently, the altcoin market continues to face significant headwinds in its struggle for traction and relevance. Despite growing institutional interest in the broader digital asset space, capital and attention remain predominantly concentrated on Bitcoin, highlighting a 'flight to quality' or a focus on the most established crypto asset during periods of macroeconomic uncertainty. This evolving landscape suggests that future price targets for Bitcoin must be evaluated through a dual lens: one that acknowledges its unique digital scarcity and another that rigorously assesses interest rate environments, fiscal policy, and global liquidity conditions. The fading of the pure 'halving narrative' does not diminish Bitcoin's long-term value proposition but rather complicates its short-to-medium-term price discovery. Investors and practitioners must now navigate a market where Bitcoin acts increasingly as a macro-economic indicator and a potential hedge against currency debasement, while still possessing its disruptive, cyclical technological roots. The convergence of these narratives defines the current and future phase of cryptocurrency adoption.

Bitcoin's Cycle Disrupted by Macro Forces as Halving Narrative Fades

Bitcoin's once-predictable four-year cycle, historically tied to halving events, is now bending under the weight of macroeconomic forces. The 2024-2025 market appears more responsive to Federal Reserve policy and US election cycles than to Bitcoin's internal supply mechanics.

ETF inflows—a key driver of recent momentum—show signs of deceleration. Meanwhile, altcoins struggle for traction despite growing institutional interest in crypto products. Markus Thielen of 10X Research notes the halving has been supplanted by political cycles as the dominant market catalyst.

The Fed's erratic policymaking further clouds the outlook, tethering crypto valuations to traditional risk assets. What was once a market governed by mathematical scarcity now dances to the tune of interest rates and electoral politics.

Kraken and Cointribune Launch Read2Earn Crypto Education Quest with $1,000 and PS5 Prize

Cointribune has partnered with Kraken to launch a new Read2Earn quest, offering participants a chance to win $1,000 in Bitcoin and a PS5. The program features seven educational articles designed to teach safe crypto investing strategies, covering topics like security, staking, and regulation.

Participants must sign up, validate their profile, and complete the quest by reading articles and passing quizzes to earn points. The initiative aims to demystify crypto investing while rewarding engagement.

Bitcoin CME Gap at $90.4K Emerges as Key Level for Rebound Scenario

Bitcoin's price action remains tightly range-bound, with traders eyeing the $90,400 CME futures gap as a pivotal level for directional bias. Weekend liquidity conditions exacerbated the asset's slide, though market participants debate whether this represents a temporary shakeout or the start of a deeper correction.

Technical analyst Ted Pillows identifies $92,000-$94,000 as the critical resistance zone needing conquest for bullish continuation. Conversely, sustained trading below $88,000-$89,000 risks accelerating losses toward $85,000 support. The compression in trading volume suggests mounting tension between bulls and bears ahead of a potential breakout.

Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Shifts Drivers from Halving to Politics and Liquidity

Bitcoin's four-year market cycle remains intact, but its primary catalysts have evolved. According to 10x Research, political cycles and liquidity conditions now outweigh the impact of halving events in driving price action. This shift reflects deepening institutional involvement and broader macroeconomic influences on cryptocurrency markets.

Historical data shows Bitcoin's peak valuations consistently align with U.S. presidential election years rather than halving timelines. The fourth-quarter peaks observed in 2013, 2017, and 2021 suggest political cycles may provide stronger directional signals than programmed supply reductions. Markus Thielen of 10x Research emphasizes that while the cyclical pattern persists, its mechanisms have fundamentally changed.

Current liquidity flows indicate a consolidation phase rather than parabolic growth. The market appears to be transitioning from retail-driven halving speculation to institutionally-dominated macro trading. This evolution positions bitcoin increasingly as a barometer of global risk appetite rather than a purely crypto-native asset.

UK Treasury to Bring Cryptocurrencies Under FCA Regulation by 2027

The UK Treasury will place cryptocurrency markets under Financial Conduct Authority oversight starting in 2027, marking a decisive shift toward treating digital assets like traditional financial products. This MOVE follows a 55% annual surge in UK investment scam losses and the seizure of 61,000 BTC (£5 billion) in enforcement actions.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves framed the regulatory push as a competitive advantage for Britain's financial sector. The rules aim to standardize transparency for exchanges, wallets, and trading platforms while introducing consumer protections currently absent in crypto markets. Non-compliant firms face sanctions, while those adhering to the framework gain operational clarity.

The FCA's expanded mandate builds on existing anti-money laundering requirements for crypto businesses. Market participants anticipate the changes will curb illicit activity and attract institutional capital to UK-based blockchain ventures.

Bitcoin Navigates Critical Price Zone Amid Divergence from Equity Markets

Bitcoin trades at $89,293, down 1.08% in 24 hours, with $38.46 billion in volume and a $1.78 trillion market cap. The cryptocurrency faces a pivotal juncture: a breakout above $94,393 could propel it toward $105K–$110K, while a dip below $82,000 may signal further correction.

Notably, BTC has decoupled from equity markets, declining 36% despite record highs in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. This divergence underscores Bitcoin's evolving role as an independent asset class, no longer tethered to traditional risk-on sentiment.

Analysts observe the shift as institutional adoption via ETFs and Treasury exposure reshapes market dynamics. 'Bitcoin isn’t just a tech proxy anymore,' notes one trader. 'It’s writing its own rules.'